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San Francisco International Airport (SFO) experiences frequent low ceiling conditions during the summer season due to marine stratus clouds. Stratus in the approach zone prevents dual approaches to the airport??s closely spaced parallel runways, effectively reducing arrival capacity by half. The stratus typically behaves on a daily cycle, with dissipation occurring during the hours following sunrise. Often the low ceiling conditions persist throughout the morning hours and interfere with the high rate of air traffic scheduled into SFO from mid-morning to early afternoon. Air traffic managers require accurate forecasts of clearing time to efficiently administer Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) to match the rate of arriving aircraft with expected capacity. The San Francisco Marine Stratus Forecast System was developed as a tool for anticipating the time of stratus clearing. The system relies on field-deployed sensors as well as routinely available regional surface observations and satellite data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-West). Data are collected, processed, and input to a suite of forecast models to predict the time that the approach zone will be sufficiently clear to perform dual approaches. Data observations and model forecasts are delivered to users on an interactive display accessible via the Internet. The system prototype was developed under the sponsorship of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). MIT Lincoln Laboratory served as technical lead for the project, in collaboration with San Jose State University, the University of Quebec at Montreal, and the Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) at the Oakland Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). The National Weather Service (NWS), under the direction of the NWS Forecast Office in Monterey, assumed responsibility for operation and maintenance of the system following technical transfer in 2004. This document was compiled as a resource to support continuing system operation and maintenance.

Air traffic in the United States is highly congested in its "Northeast Corridor", an area that roughly encompasses the airspace from Washington, DC to Boston. This region is frequently affected by low cloud ceiling and visibility conditions during the cool season, often in association with synoptic-scale low pressure systems. Operating under IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) for extended periods of time substantially reduces airport capacity and can cause significant delay at major airports. Anticipating transitions into and out of IFR ceiling and visibility conditions can mitigate air traffic disruption by allowing for appropriate upstream planning. For instance, an accurate forecast of the lifting of cloud ceiling out of IFR range would allow for the release of more planes upstream to take advantage of the anticipated increase in capacity. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), through its Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP), is currently sponsoring the Northeast Winter Ceiling and Visibility Project (NECV). Its purpose is to provide situational awareness of current ceiling and visibility conditions in the Northeast United States in a way tailored to the needs of air traffic control (ATC), as well as to bring a number of various but complimentary technologies to bear on providing automated 0-12 hour forecasts of upcoming conditions. Methodologies currently under development include numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications, 1-dimensional column modeling, tracking of aviation-impacting cloud, and statistical forecast models (Clark 2006). This presentation describes the development of statistical forecast models for major New York City airports. The statistical forecast models use routine regional meteorological observations as predictors for future values of ceiling and visibility for selected locations. These predictors consist primarily of hourly surface observations, but upper air soundings and buoy data are available for use as well. The methodology for building the models is based on non-linear regression, with the nonlinearity entering in the spirit of Generalized Additive Models (Hastie and Tibshiriani 1990). Several innovations are introduced to aid in predictor selection and to enhance the skill and stability of the final models. Statistical models such as these have been successfully developed and used recently in an operational setting for ATC. The recently completed San Francisco (SFO) Marine Stratus Initiative (also sponsored by AWRP) features a real-time display and forecast system, which contains as one of its components a regional statistical forecast model (Wilson 2004, Clark et al. 2005). The model uses hourly surface observations from the San Francisco Bay area along with the Oakland sounding to produce regular forecasts of stratus dissipation during the warm season. The performance of this model during two years (May – October) of real-time operations is given in Table 1. The context for the marine stratus model differs from that for NECV in several important ways. In SFO, warm season stratus dissipation is a diurnal phenomenon, governed primarily by mesoscale and radiative processes in conjunction with local topography. The NECV problem is more affected by synoptic dynamics, and less by the diurnal component. This paper next provides a high-level summary of the methodology that has been developed to build these statistical forecast models followed by details of the initial NECV problem, including some discussion of the quality of the predictor data. Model accuracy can be improved by development over phenomenological partitions of the available cases; a method of partitioning the cases is described. The paper concludes with a discussion of near-term tasks.

The objective of this study was to analyze the weather sensing and data fusion required to improve safety and reduce delays at a number of west coast airports that are not currently scheduled to receive an Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). This report considers the Los Angeles (LAX), San Francisco (SFO), Seattle (SEA) and Portland, OR (PDX) international airports. A number of visits were made to the various ATC facilities to better understand their weather decision support operational needs. Analyses were made of an incident of lightning strikes to two aircraft at SEA in February 1999, and a prototype terminal winds product was developed for LAX that uses profilers as well as plane reports to update the the National Weather Service (NWS) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) winds estimates. We found that an augmented ITWS could potentially address safety concerns for triggered lightning strikes and vertical wind shear in winter storms at Portland and Seattle. An augmented ITWS terminal winds product (that uses wind profiler data in addition to the current ITWS sensors) could provide very large delay reductions for LAX and SFO during winter storms as a component of a wake vortex advisory system. This augmented product also could provide significant delay reduction benefits at SEA. The sensors required to obtain the projected benefits at SFO do not exist currently. Portland may warrant additional sensors to address the vertical wind shear problems, and LAX would require additional sensors for a wake vortex advisory system. We recommend near-term experimental measurements at PDX to determine the optimum sensor mix and that an operational evaluation of the prototype augmented ITWS terminal winds product be carried out at LAX to determine if the current sensor mix can meet operational needs. Lightning strike data at SEA and PDX should be analyzed to determine if a proposed triggered lightning predictant is accurate.

San Francisco International Airport is one of the busiest airports in the United States and one of the highest delay airports in terms of total aircraft delay hours and number of imposed air traffic delay programs. As with most airports, weather is the primary cause of aircraft delay. In particular, the local airspace is prone to regular occurrences of low cloud ceiling conditions due to intrusion of marine air from the eastern Pacific Ocean from May through September. Typically, this layer of stratus clouds forms in the San Francisco Bay area overnight and dissipates during the middle to late morning. The timing of the stratus cloud dissipation is such that it frequently poses a threat to the morning arrival push of air traffic into San Francisco. Weather forecasters at the Central Weather Service Unit (CWSU) at the Oakland AirRoute Traffic Control Center are responsible for providing a forecast whether or not the cloudiness will impact morning traffic operations. This information is used for decision making by the Traffic Management Unit at Oakland Center in order to optimally match arriving traffic demand to available airport capacity. As part of the FAA's Integrated Terminal Weather System, the Weather Sensing Group at MIT Lincoln Laboratory has begun an effort entitled the "Marine Stratus Initiative." Its objective is to provide improved weather information and forecast guidance to the Oakland CWSU, which is responsible for providing weather forecasts to air traffic managers. During 1995, the main focus of the project was the design and implementation of a data acquisition, communication, and display infrastructure that provides forecasters with new sources of weather data and information. These initial capabilities were tested during an operational demonstration in August and September. As the project continues, the intent is to improve these new data sources and develop an automated or semi-automated algorithm that will process raw information to provide weather forecasters with numerical guidance to assist them in the forecast process. A description of airport operations at San Francisco and the impact of marine stratus are presented. An explanation is given of the marine stratus phenomenology and the primary factors contributing to cloud dissipation. This conceptual model of the dissipation process is used to define system requirements. A description of the hardware, communications, and display subsystems is provided. An overview of the 1995 demonstration, including user comments, is presented, as well as future plans for meeting the longer-term objectives of the project.

A Dynamic Atmospheric Vertical Structure Nowcast System (DAVS-NS) is being developed that will add value to the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) by providing current and short-term forecasts of the vertical atmospheric structure focused at specific sites within the terminal domain. Operational applications of these estimates of the atmospheric vertical structure include predicting changes in airport operation rates due to ceiling and visibility (C&V) changes and in predicting wake vortex behavior. The core of this system would be a one-dimensional boundary layer column model. This report summarizes the evaluation of a modified Oregon State University (OSU) column model using data collected during the fall 1994 combined National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) wake vortex project and the ITWS site operations at Memphis International Airport (MEM). Further efforts are necessary to develop and test an operational DAVS-NS prototype. The accuracy typically seen in column model predictions of the vertical temperature structure will limit errors in wake vortex dissipation rates to within a factor of two. Given the current working hypothesis for the San Francisco stratus burn-off phenomenon that rests largely on warming of the marine boundary layer by surface heat flux, the OSU model will also appear to be well suited for addressing this particular problem.

The wind in the airspace around an airport impacts both airport safety and operational efficiency. Knowledge of the wind helps controllers and automation systems merge streams of traffic; it is also important for the prediction of storm growth and decay, burn-off of fog and lifting of low ceilings, and wake vortex hazards. This knowledge is provided by the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) gridded wind product, or Terminal Winds. The Terminal Winds product combines data from a national numerical weather-prediction model, called the Rapid Update Cycle, with observations from ground stations, aircraft reports, and Doppler weather radars to provide estimates of the horizontal wind field in the terminal area. The Terminal Winds analysis differs from previous real-time winds-analysis systems in that it is dominated by Doppler weather-radar data. Terminal Winds uses an analysis called cascade of scales and a new winds-analysis technique based on least squares to take full advantage of the information contained in the diverse data set available in an ITWS. The weather radars provide sufficiently fine-scale winds information to support a 2-km horizontal-resolution analysis and a five-minute update rate. A prototype of the Terminal Winds analysis system was tested at Orlando International Airport in 1992, 1993, and 1995, and at Memphis International Airport in 1994. The field operations featured the first real-time winds analysis combining data from the Federal Aviation Administration TDWR radar and the National Weather Service NEXRAD radar. The evaluation plan is designed to capture both the overall system performance and the performance during convective weather, when the fine-scale analysis is expected to show its greatest benefit.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) is supporting the development of products important for air traffic control in the terminal area. Some ITWS is supporting the development of products important for air traffic control in the terminal area. Some ITWS products will allow air traffic managers to anticipate operationally significant short-term (0-30 min) changes in ceiling and visibility (C&V) and aircraft separations necessary to avoid encounters with wake vortices. Development of such products exploits data that will be available from new FAA terminal area sensor systems. These sensor systems include Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), the Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS), and the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). A Dynamic Atmospheric Vertical Structure Nowcast System (DAVS-NS) is being developed that will add value to ITWS by providing current analyses and short-term forecasts of the vertical atmospheric structure focused at specific sites within the terminal domain. This report summarizes the initial evaluation of the Oregon State University one-dimensional boundary layer model for its potential role within a DAVS-NS.

The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) is that part of the atmosphere, which is directly influenced by the presence of the earth's surface, and which responds to surface forcing with a time-scale of an hour or less. The Residual Layer (RL) is the portion of the lower atmosphere, which was part of the PBL within the past several hours, and which has become separated from the influence of short-term surface forcing, usually by the formation of a cooler layer at the surface. In the mid-latitudes, the height of the combined PBL and RL is usually 1-2 kilometers. A column model is a one-dimensional prognostic model for the state of a single column of the atmosphere, with special attention to the processes in the lowest few kilometers. It is designed to diagnose and nowcast the vertical structure of the PBL. Important information for ITWS1 nowcast products are the vertical profiles of horizontal wind velocity, temperature, humidity, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the lowest few kilometers (Sankey, 1994). Traditionally, operational meteorologists have obtained estimates of these quantities by balloon soundings, a measurement process that is not well-suited for continuous updates. We are investigating the possibility of developing an operational column model to obtain this vertical structure information for use in the ITWS. Our approach involves using a combination of sensing technology and analysis techniques that have proven successful in several research programs. Column models are designed to mimic the processes by which the surface forces the processes in the low atmosphere at times when local radiation is a dominant factor. Fluxes are measures of the net rates of these transport processes. The widely used Oregon State University column model (OSUlDPBL) parameterizes the fluxes by gradient transfer techniques (Troen and Mahr!, 1986). This model has provided dependable service in several field experiments, providing information with a vertical resolution of tens of meters. It is not designed to provide a fine-scale description of the stable nocturnal PBL. The French model COB EL has been developed to forecast the occurrence of radiation fog, and therefore concentrates on modeling the stable nocturnal PBL (Bergot and Guedalia, 1994). It uses a prognostic equation to estimate TKE in the stable boundary layer and parameterizes the fluxes in tern1s of the TKE (Duynkerke, 1991). A discussion of the potential uses of the column model in the ITWS is followed by the considerations that motivate the design of an operational column model. The prototype design is described. We conclude with the results of a preliminary evaluation using STORMFEST data (STORM Project Office, 1992) and a discussion of plans for a more comprehensive evaluation.

The Terminal Winds analysis technique was developed to take advantage of the Doppler information available in the terminal area. This technique, Optimal Estimation (OE), uses a minimum error variance technique (least squares) and is closely related to both the state-of-the-art operational non-Doppler winds analysis technique, Optimal Interpolation (OI) (Gandin, 1963) (Daly, 1991), and standard multiple Doppler techniques (Armijo, 1969). This technique was evaluated on data collected in 1992-1993 in Orlando FL, and demonstrated in real time in the Orlando testbed during the summer of 1993 and in the Memphis testbed during the summer of 1994.

The Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) is a development program initiated by the Federal Administration (FAA) to produce a fully automated, integrated terminal weather information system to improve the safety, efficiency and capacity of terminal area aviation operations. The ITWS will acquire data from FAA and National Weather Service sensors as well as from aircraft in flight in the terminal area. The ITWS will provide Air Traffic personnel with products that are immediately usable without further meteorological interpretation. Among the products are current terminal area weather, short-term (0-30 minute) predictions of significant weather phenomena, and the Terminal Winds product. The terminal winds product is the component of the ITWS which produces estimates of the horizontal winds on a three dimensional grid of points encompassing an airport terminal region. It uses information from a variety of sensors, including Doppler weather radars. In 1992, an operational test of an initial prototype Terminal Winds system was conducted at the MIT Lincoln Laboratory testbed in Orlando, FL. This report describes our evalution of the initial Terminal Winds prototype.