Publications
Redeployment of the New York TDWR - technical analysis of candidate sites and alternative wind shear sensors
September 14, 2009
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-351
Summary
The John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA) are protected from wind shear exposure by the New York Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which is currently located at Floyd Bennet Field, New York. Because of a September 1999 agreement between the Department of the Interior and the Department of Transportation, this location is required to be vacated no later than January 2023. Therefore, a study based on model simulations of wind shear detection probability was conducted to support future siting selection and alternative technologies. A total of 18 candidate sites were selected for analysis, including leaving the radar where it is. (The FAA will explore the feasibility of the latter alternative; it is included in this study only for technical analysis.) The 18 sites are: Six candidate sites that were identified in the initial New York TDWR site-survey studies in the 1990s (one of which is the current TDWR site), a site on Staten Island, two Manhattan skyscrapers, the current location of the WCBS Doppler weather radar in Twombly Landing, New Jersey, and eight local airports including JFK and LGA themselves. Results clearly show that for a single TDWR system, all six previously surveyed sites are suitable for future housing of the TDWR. Unfortunately, land acquisition of these sites will be at least as challenging as it was in the 1990s due to further urban development and likely negative reaction from neighboring residents. Evaluation results of the on-airport siting of the TDWR (either at JFK or at LGA) indicate that this option is feasible if data from the Newark TDWR are simultaneously used. This on-airport option would require software modification such as integration of data from the two radar systems an dimplementation of "overhead" feature detection. The radars on the Manhattan skyscrapers are not an acceptable alternative due to severe ground clutter. The Staten Island site and most other candidate airports are also not acceptable due to distance and/or beam blockage. The existing Airport Surveillance Radar (ASR-9) Weather Systems Processor (WSP) at JFK and the Bookhaven (OKX) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D, commonly known as NEXRAD) on Long Island cannot provide sufficient wind shear protection mainly due to limited wind shear detection capability and/or distance.
Summary
The John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA) are protected from wind shear exposure by the New York Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which is currently located at Floyd Bennet Field, New York. Because of a September 1999 agreement between the Department of the Interior and the...
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Modeling convective weather avoidance in enroute airspace
January 20, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
13th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 20-24 January 2008.
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It is generally agreed that effective management of convective weather in congested airspace requires decision support tools that translate the weather products and forecasts into forecasts of ATC impacts and then use those ATC impact forecasts to suggest air traffic management strategies. In future trajectory-based operations, it will be necessary to automatically generate flight trajectories through or around convective weather that pilots will find acceptable. A critical first step, needed in both today's air traffic management environment and in the highly automated systems of the future, is a validated model for airspace that pilots will seek to avoid. At the 12th Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology (Atlanta, 2006), we reported on an initial Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM1) (DeLaura and Evans; 2006). The CWAM1 outputs are three dimensional deterministic and probabilistic weather avoidance fields (WAFs). CWAM1 used Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) VIL and echo top fields and National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data to predict aircraft deviations and penetration. CWAM1 was developed using more than 500 aircraft-convective weather encounters in the Indianapolis Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZID ARTCC) airspace. CWAM1 gave the greatest weight to the difference between flight altitude and the 18 dbZ radar echo top with precipitation intensity playing a secondary role. The deviation prediction error rate in CWAM1 was approximately 25%. This paper presents a new model (CWAM2), based on the analysis of trajectories from several ARTCCs [Indianapolis (ZID), Cleveland (ZOB) and meteorological deviation predictors. Additional weather factors that are considered include vertical storm structure (upper level reflectivity and the height of the VIL centroid derived from the NSSL 3D reflectivity mosaic), vertical and horizontal storm growth, the spatial variation in VIL and echo top fields and storm motion.
Summary
It is generally agreed that effective management of convective weather in congested airspace requires decision support tools that translate the weather products and forecasts into forecasts of ATC impacts and then use those ATC impact forecasts to suggest air traffic management strategies. In future trajectory-based operations, it will be necessary...
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Aircraft encounters with thunderstorms in enroute vs. terminal airspace above Memphis, Tennesssee
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. 10th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 162-165.
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Summary
To date, very little attention has been given to quantifying the effects of thunderstorms on air traffic in enroute airspace. What types of storms cause pilots to deviate from their nominal flight routes? What types of storms do pilots fly through? Around? Over? When thunderstorms are forecast to affect a particular region, how many planes will need to be rerouted? Which ones? Which aspects of the storm need to be accurately forecast in order to answer those questions? How does the forecast accuracy affect the quality of airspace capacity predictions? Quantitative answers to these questions would contribute to the design of useful decision support tools. Federal Aviation Administration decision support tools are being equipped with the ability for air traffic managers to define dynamic "flow constrained areas" (FCAs). Each FCA will be a polygon in latitude/longitude space with ceiling and floor altitudes and a motion vector. One primary use for FCAs will be to define regions that do, or probably will, contain convective thunderstorm activity. These tools will help air traffic managers decide which planes to re-route around the weather and which planes have a reasonable chance of flying through, between, or over the storms. Although it will be helpful to have the ability to manually define FCAs in the traffic managers' tools, the efficiency of the solutions that will be worked out with those tools would be greatly enhanced by answers to the questions posed above. In our prior work we have attempted to quantify the behavior of pilots who encounter thunderstorms in terminal airspace during the final 60 nautical miles of flight. In this study we compare the storm avoidance behavior of pilots in enroute airspace with that of pilots who encountered the very same storms at lower altitudes, in terminal airspace. The study is preliminary, but it complements the terminal work, affords some insight into pilot behavior, and raises questions that should be addressed in a larger study.
Summary
To date, very little attention has been given to quantifying the effects of thunderstorms on air traffic in enroute airspace. What types of storms cause pilots to deviate from their nominal flight routes? What types of storms do pilots fly through? Around? Over? When thunderstorms are forecast to affect a...
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New products for the NEXRAD ORPG to support FAA critical systems
February 9, 2002
Conference Paper
Published in:
19th Int. Conf. on Interactive Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology, 9-13 February 2002.
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A number of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) critical systems rely on products from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) suite of algorithms. These systems include MIAWS (Medium Intensity Airport Weather System), ITWS (Integrated Terminal Weather System), CIWS (Corridor Integrated Weather System), and WARP (Weather and Radar Processing). With the advent of the NEXRAD Open Radar Product Generator (ORPG), a six-month build cycle has been established for the incorporation of new or improved algorithms. This build cycle provides the mechanism for the integration of new products into the algorithm suite tailored to the needs of these FAA systems now and into the future. Figure 1 is useful for visualizing the MIT/LL ORPGnet. Four of the ORPGnet systems are located at MIT/LL headquartered in Lexington, MA. These four systems form the core of the development center where algorithms are developed for and implemented into the ORPG environment. Part of the development process includes examination of algorithm products created from past weather. A number of utilities are available for playback of various versions of NEXRAD Archive II base data: from tape or disk files in standard or LDM formats. Additionally, MIT/LL operates the CIWS demonstation project for the FAA. The ORPG clones at the development center have access to base data from 26 NEXRAD radars from the Midwest to the East Coast of the United States ingested for CIWS. The FAA has tasked the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) with developing algorithms for the ORPG to address their systems' needs. Many of these algorithms will also prove useful to other users of NEXRAD products such as the National Weather Service and the Department of Defense. MIT/LL has created a network of ten ORPGs, or an ORPGnet, to use for the purpose of developing, testing, and implementing new algorithms targeted to specific builds. The benefits of the ORPGnet will be discussed in more detail later in this paper. MIT/LL has provided improvements to existing algorithms or developed new algorithms for the first three build cycles of the ORPG (Istok et al., 2002; Smalley and Bennett, 2002). Development of more algorithms is currently in progress for upcoming build cycles. In addition to describing ORPGnet, this paper will focus on its use in the development of a new Data Quality Assurance (DQA) algorithm, an improved High Resolution VIL (HRVIL) algorithm, and progress on the development of the enhanced Echo Tops (EET) algorithm; as well as the symbiotic relationship of these algorithms to the FAA critical systems.
Summary
A number of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) critical systems rely on products from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) suite of algorithms. These systems include MIAWS (Medium Intensity Airport Weather System), ITWS (Integrated Terminal Weather System), CIWS (Corridor Integrated Weather System), and WARP (Weather and Radar Processing). With the advent of the NEXRAD...
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Commercial aircraft encounters with thunderstorms in the Memphis terminal airspace
September 11, 2000
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. Ninth Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 11-15 September 2000, pp. 37-42.
Summary
Thunderstorms are dynamic obstacles to the flow of air traffic. Aircraft routing in the presence of thunderstorms is as dynamic as the position and intensity of the storms. The question of where pilots will and will not fly is relevant to the decisions made by human air traffic managers as well as to the development of automated decision aid tools. In order to accurately anticipate which routes will be useable one needs to be able to 1) forecast the relevant weather variables, and 2) convert those weather variables into a quantitative probability that pilots will request deviations from the nominal route. The Convective Weather Integrated Product Team at the FAA is improving the accuracy and lead time of forecasts of thunderstorm products. This paper provides an update on our examination of the issue of probability of deviation. In our recent examination of 63 hours of weather and flight track data from the DFW airspace (Rhoda and Pawlak, 1999a,b) we combined several weather variables (measurements, not forecasts) to correctly predict pilot deviation and penetration behavior for 70-85% of the encounters between thunderstorms and aircraft arriving at DW and Dallas Love (DAL) airports. We also found that pilots were more likely to penetrate strong precipitation when they: 1) were near the arrival airport, 2) were following another aircraft, 3) were flying after dark, 4) had been delayed in the air by 15+ minutes upstream of the DFW airspace. We did not find any statistically significant difference between the percentages of thunderstorm penetrations by various airlines. We also found that persistent penetration of storms near the airport is sometimes abruptly interrupted presumably by wind shear alerts from air traffic controllers or cautionary pilot reports from the penetrating aircraft. When the arrivals cease, aircraft on the final approach course may turn suddenly to the left or right to avoid the weather that caused the interruption. Aircraft that abort the approach sometimes fly through very intense precipitation-sometimes through downdrafts that are causing microburst outflows at the surface. The work described in this paper applies the methodology from the DFW study to data collected in the Memphis Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON). The methodology is described briefly here and in more detail in (Rhoda and Pawlak, 1999b). We developed several probability of deviation classifiers using a portion of the Memphis data and tested them on the remaining data to determine if it is possible to predict whether pilots will penetrate or deviate around the storms. We also tested the classifiers that were developed in the DNV study on the MEM data and vice versa. We repeated the DFW hypothesis tests for various dichotomies of encounters: near/far, leading/following, light/dark, delayed/undelayed.
Summary
Thunderstorms are dynamic obstacles to the flow of air traffic. Aircraft routing in the presence of thunderstorms is as dynamic as the position and intensity of the storms. The question of where pilots will and will not fly is relevant to the decisions made by human air traffic managers as...
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The design and validation of the ITWS synthetic sensor data generator
April 12, 2000
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-289
Summary
The Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) is an aviation safety and air traffic management decision support system that acquires data from various FAA and NWS sensors and generates a number of products for dissemination to FAA facilities managing air traffic in the terminal area. The development and demonstrations of ITWS have been conducted over a multi-year period at several major airports (Memphis, TN, Orlando, FL, Dallas, TX, and New York, NY). Although there are many meteorological events observed at these four airports, the experimental test data sets obtained will not fully suffice for ITWS qualification testing because of limitations in the severity of the weather events and because of the sensor configurations available at these locations. This report describes the design and validation of the Synthetic Data Generator (SDG), which is a tool to provide a production ITWS system with meteorologically consistent scenarios and full ITWS sensor configurations that will create maximal computational loads that can be expected when the system is deployed. Also, the SDG will be a tool for ongoing ITWS maintenance and support. As such, the SDG will complement the extensive experimental data sets collected at the four ITWS demonstration sites. The SDG is designed to specify parameters for a collection of meteorological models describing the various weather phenomena, their motion, appearance, and growth/decay. The software creates several three-dimensional (3D) grids of reflectivity and velocity at each time-step. Finally, the SDG generates sensor (i.e., TDWR, NEXRAD, ASR-9) data by applying the model for each specific sensor's measurements to the 3D grids. The validation of the meteorological model and the sensor model data have been accomplished using a display tool and by assessing results numerically.
Summary
The Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) is an aviation safety and air traffic management decision support system that acquires data from various FAA and NWS sensors and generates a number of products for dissemination to FAA facilities managing air traffic in the terminal area. The development and demonstrations of ITWS...
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The thunderstorm penetration/deviation decision in the terminal area
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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During thunderstorm periods, terminal air traffic planners make a number of key decisions. They decide when to close and re-open arrival fixes, departure fixes, and runways; they anticipate and execute changes in runway configuration; they negotiate routing and flow rate decisions with Air Route Traffic Control Center (ART CC) traffic managers; and they set the airport acceptance rate. In making each of these decisions, the traffic planner looks at a weather radar display and makes an educated guess at answering the two following questions: - What will the weather be like in the airspace and time period in question? - Will the pilots be able and willing to fly through that airspace during that time? The same two questions will be important for advanced terminal automation systems. One key element of air traffic automation systems such as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is the calculation of candidate trajectories for each aircraft for the time period of automation control. To make this calculation, the automation software must know which routes will be usable during the control period. The first of the two fundamental questions is being addressed by the convective weather Product Development Team (PDT) of the FAA's Aviation Weather Research program. (Wolfson, 1997; Wolfson, 1999; Hallowell, 1999; Forman, 1999; Evans, 1997) The second fundamental question is the subject of the work reported here. The state of the art answer to the second question is a widely quoted air traffic control rule-of-thumb which says that pilots generally do not penetrate precipitation that is NWS VIP level 3 (i.e. 41 dBZ) or higher. That is not to say that air traffic controllers always vector aircraft around level 3+ cells but rather that they begin to anticipate pilot requests for deviations when the weather approaches level 3. A suite of new weather sensors have become available that provide much more comprehensive information on convective weather features than was available in the past. Additionally, flight-related data such as preceding pilot behavior and whether a flight is running late are easier to obtain than in the past. In this study we develop an objective quantitative assessment of which weather and flight-related variables best explain pilot deviation decision-making.
Summary
During thunderstorm periods, terminal air traffic planners make a number of key decisions. They decide when to close and re-open arrival fixes, departure fixes, and runways; they anticipate and execute changes in runway configuration; they negotiate routing and flow rate decisions with Air Route Traffic Control Center (ART CC) traffic...
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The impact of thunderstorm growth and decay on air traffic management in class B airspace
February 2, 1997
Conference Paper
Published in:
7th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 2-7 February 1997.
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Air traffic management is a challenging task, especially if the airspace involved is impacted by inclement weather. The high volume of air traffic which inundates the nation's major airports compounds the difficulties with which Air Traffic Control (ATC) specialists have to cope. When you add the unpredictability of thunderstorm growth and decay to the controllers workload, air traffic management becomes even more of a challenge. ATC specialists would benefit from reliable forecasts of thunderstorm growth and decay. To determine how they would use a Growth and Decay product, ATC specialists from the Memphis Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC), Traffic Management Unit (TMU), and TRACON supervisors were interviewed while viewing five movie loops of Memphis weather cases. The movies consisted of the ASR-9 six-level reflectivity data, aircraft beacons, and storm motion vectors.
Summary
Air traffic management is a challenging task, especially if the airspace involved is impacted by inclement weather. The high volume of air traffic which inundates the nation's major airports compounds the difficulties with which Air Traffic Control (ATC) specialists have to cope. When you add the unpredictability of thunderstorm growth...
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ITWS microburst prediction algorithm performance, capabilities, and limitations
November 13, 1996
Conference Paper
Published in:
Workshop on Wind Shear and Wind Shear Alert Systems,. Oklahoma City, 13-15 November, 1996.
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Lincoln Laboratory, under funding from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Doppler Weather Radar program, has developed algorithms for automatically detecting microbursts. While microburst detection algorithms provide highly reliable warnings of microbursts. there still remains a period of time between microburst onset and pilot reaction during which aircraft are at risk. This latency is due to the time needed for the automated algorithms to operate on the radar data, for air traffic controllers to relay any warnings and for pilots to react to the warnings. Lincoln Laboratory research and development has yielded an algorithm for accurately predicting when microburst outflows will occur. The Microburst Prediction Algorithm is part of a suite of weather detection algorithms within the Integrated Terminal Weather System. This paper details the performance of the Microburst Prediction Algorithm over a wide range of geographical and climatological environments. The paper also discusses the full range of the Microburst Prediction Algorithm's capabilities and limitations in varied weather environments. This paper does not discuss the overall rationale for a prediction algorithm or the detailed methodology used to generate predictions.
Summary
Lincoln Laboratory, under funding from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Doppler Weather Radar program, has developed algorithms for automatically detecting microbursts. While microburst detection algorithms provide highly reliable warnings of microbursts. there still remains a period of time between microburst onset and pilot reaction during which aircraft are at...
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Comparison of the performance of the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) microburst detection algorithms
November 13, 1996
Conference Paper
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Workshop on Wind Shear and Wind Shear Alert Systems, 13-15 November, 1996.
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This paper describes the designs of the TDWR and ITWS Microburst Detection algorithms, and compares their performances in the Orlando, FL and Memphis, TN environments. This is the first study in which the performance of the TDWR and ITWS microburst detection algorithms are compared using an identical data set and a common set of truth criteria. Examples are presented illustrating common scenarios which create the performance differences. Detail is presented on the impact of the ITWS VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water) test in reducing algorithm false alarms. This algorithm feature is currently being considered as a retrofit to the TDWR algorithm.
Summary
This paper describes the designs of the TDWR and ITWS Microburst Detection algorithms, and compares their performances in the Orlando, FL and Memphis, TN environments. This is the first study in which the performance of the TDWR and ITWS microburst detection algorithms are compared using an identical data set and...
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