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Airspace flow rate forecast algorithms, validation, and implementation

December 15, 2015
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Project Report
Author:
Michael P. Matthews
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-428
Topic:
artificial intelligence
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

This report summarizes work performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory during the period 1 February 2015 - 30 November 2015 focused on developing and improving algorithms to estimate the impact of convective weather on air traffic flows. The core motivation for the work is the need to improve strategic traffic flow management decision-making in the National Airspace System. The algorithms developed as part of this work translate multiple weather forecast products into a discrete airspace impact metric called permeability.
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Summary

This report summarizes work performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory during the period 1 February 2015 - 30 November 2015 focused on developing and improving algorithms to estimate the impact of convective weather on air traffic flows. The core motivation for the work is the need to improve strategic traffic flow...

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Airspace flow rate forecast algorithms, validation, and implementation

Review of Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) method and results to support NextGen concept assessment and validation

October 25, 2013
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Project Report
Author:
Eric P. Harkleroad
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-427
Topic:
modeling
R&D area:

Summary

This report provides an assessment of the applicability of Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to perform preliminary risk-based modeling of complex NextGen concepts, based on the observed application of STPA to Interval Management-Spacing (IM-S) as a case study. The report also considers the potential use of STPA as a formal tool for safety analysis at the Federal Aviation Administration. This report's sources include a report documenting the application of STPA performed by the MIT Systems Engineering Research Lab (SERL), previous reports, and input from other staff and aviation subject-matter experts.
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Summary

This report provides an assessment of the applicability of Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to perform preliminary risk-based modeling of complex NextGen concepts, based on the observed application of STPA to Interval Management-Spacing (IM-S) as a case study. The report also considers the potential use of STPA as a formal tool...

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Review of Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) method and results to support NextGen concept assessment and validation

Risk-based modeling to support NextGen concept assessment and validation

March 1, 2013
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Project Report
Author:
Eric P. Harkleroad
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-405
Topic:
modeling
R&D area:

Summary

This report provides a brief review of major risk-based modeling (RBM) approaches, with particular emphasis on how these tools can be applied during initial Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept development and how their use can be validated. Effective safety analysis should play a role even during a new system's concept definition and development. Elements of NextGen are currently progressing through these early phases. NextGen will increasingly rely on integrating multiple systems and information together to enable improved efficiency, safety, and reduced environmental impact. Ensuring that such complex interconnected systems are developed to meet safety goals requires corresponding advances in RBM and safety assessment approaches. This report does not cover the more detailed safety analyses that must be applied to mature system concepts. Rather, the focus is on approaches for hazard identification, scoping, and coarse risk estimation for systems in the early conceptual development stage, when details on the design and operation of the system have yet to be resolved. Risk models applied is this constrained context cannot be expected to provide the same complete, quantitative results as they do for mature systems. Following a review of prior models, this report continues with recommendations for RBM development, application, validation, and coordination between NextGen efforts. Also, a discussion on safety and concept development is provided.
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Summary

This report provides a brief review of major risk-based modeling (RBM) approaches, with particular emphasis on how these tools can be applied during initial Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept development and how their use can be validated. Effective safety analysis should play a role even during a new...

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Risk-based modeling to support NextGen concept assessment and validation

The Tower Flight Data Manager prototype system

October 16, 2011
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Conference Paper
Author:
Vineet Mehta
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Published in:
DASC 2011, 30th IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, 16-20 October 2011, pp. 2C5.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) will serve as the next generation air traffic control tower automation platform for surface and local airspace operations. TFDM provides three primary enhancements over current systems: consolidation of diverse data and information sources into a single platform; electronic data exchange, including flight data entries, within and outside the tower cab; and a suite of decision support capabilities leveraging TFDM's access to external data sources and systems. This paper describes a TFDM prototype system that includes integrated surveillance, flight data, and decision support display components. Enhancements in airport configuration management, runway assignment, taxi routing, sequencing and scheduling, and departure route assurance are expected to yield significant benefits in delay reduction, fuel savings, additional capacity, improved access, enhanced safety, and reduced environmental impact. Data are provided on system performance and air traffic controller acceptance from simulation studies and a preliminary field demonstration at Dallas / Ft. Worth International Airport.
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Summary

The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) will serve as the next generation air traffic control tower automation platform for surface and local airspace operations. TFDM provides three primary enhancements over current systems: consolidation of diverse data and information sources into a single platform; electronic data exchange, including flight data entries...

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The Tower Flight Data Manager prototype system

Benefits assessment methodology for an air traffic control tower advanced automation system

September 13, 2010
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Conference Paper
Author:
Thomas G. Reynolds
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Published in:
ATIO 2010: 10th AIAA Aviation Technology Integration and Operations Conf., 13-15 September 2010.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

This paper presents a benefits assessment methodology for an air traffic control tower advanced automation system called the Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM), which is being considered for development by the FAA to support NextGen operations. The standard FAA benefits analysis methodology is described, together with how it has been tailored to the TFDM application to help inform the development process and the business case for system deployment. Parts of the methodology are illustrated through data analysis and modeling, and insights are presented to help prioritize TFDM capability development.
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Summary

This paper presents a benefits assessment methodology for an air traffic control tower advanced automation system called the Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM), which is being considered for development by the FAA to support NextGen operations. The standard FAA benefits analysis methodology is described, together with how it has been...

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Benefits assessment methodology for an air traffic control tower advanced automation system

Collision avoidance for unmanned aircraft using Markov Decision Processes

August 2, 2010
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Conference Paper
Author:
Selim Temizer
…
Published in:
AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conf., 2-5 August 2010.
Topic:
collision avoidance
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Before unmanned aircraft can fly safely in civil airspace, robust airborne collision avoidance systems must be developed. Instead of hand-crafting a collision avoidance algorithm for every combination of sensor and aircraft configuration, we investigate the automatic generation of collision avoidance algorithms given models of aircraft dynamics, sensor performance, and intruder behavior. By formulating the problem of collision avoidance as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) for sensors that provide precise localization of the intruder aircraft, or a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) for sensors that have positional uncertainty or limited field-of-view constraints, generic MDP/POMDP solvers can be used to generate avoidance strategies that optimize a cost function that balances flight-plan deviation with collision. Experimental results demonstrate the suitability of such an approach using four different sensor modalities and a parametric aircraft performance model.
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Summary

Before unmanned aircraft can fly safely in civil airspace, robust airborne collision avoidance systems must be developed. Instead of hand-crafting a collision avoidance algorithm for every combination of sensor and aircraft configuration, we investigate the automatic generation of collision avoidance algorithms given models of aircraft dynamics, sensor performance, and intruder...

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Collision avoidance for unmanned aircraft using Markov Decision Processes

Airspace encounter models for estimating collision risk

March 1, 2010
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Journal Article
Author:
Mykel J. Kochenderfer
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Published in:
J. Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, Vol. 33, No. 2, March-April 2010, pp. 487-499.
Topic:
collision avoidance
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Airspace encounter models, providing a statistical representation of geometries and aircraft behavior during a close encounter, are required to estimate the safety and robustness of collision avoidance systems. Prior encounter models, developed to certify the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, have been limited in their ability to capture important characteristics of encounters as revealed by recorded surveillance data, do not capture the current mix of aircraft types or noncooperative aircraft, and do not represent more recent airspace procedures. This paper describes a methodology for encounter model construction based on a Bayesian statistical framework connected to an extensive set of national radar data. In addition, this paper provides examples of using several such high-fidelity models to evaluate the safety of collision avoidance systems for manned and unmanned aircraft.
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Summary

Airspace encounter models, providing a statistical representation of geometries and aircraft behavior during a close encounter, are required to estimate the safety and robustness of collision avoidance systems. Prior encounter models, developed to certify the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, have been limited in their ability to capture important...

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Airspace encounter models for estimating collision risk

Unmanned aircraft collision avoidance using partially observable Markov decision processes

September 22, 2009
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Project Report
Author:
Mykel J. Kochenderfer
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-356
Topic:
collision avoidance
R&D area:

Summary

Before unmanned aircraft can fly safely in civil airspace, robust airborne collision avoidance systems must be developed. Instead of hand-crafting a collision avoidance algorithm for every combination of sensor and aircraft configuration, this project investigates the automatic generation of collision avoidance logic given models of aircraft dynamics, sensor performance, and intruder behavior. By formulating the problem of collision avoidance as a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP), a generic POMDP solver can be used to generate avoidance strategies that optimize a cost function that balances flight-plan deviation with collision. Experimental results demonstrate the suitability of such an approach using three different sensor modalities and two aircraft performance models.
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Summary

Before unmanned aircraft can fly safely in civil airspace, robust airborne collision avoidance systems must be developed. Instead of hand-crafting a collision avoidance algorithm for every combination of sensor and aircraft configuration, this project investigates the automatic generation of collision avoidance logic given models of aircraft dynamics, sensor performance, and...

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Unmanned aircraft collision avoidance using partially observable Markov decision processes

Safety analysis of upgrading to TCAS Version 7.1 using the 2008 U.S. Correlated Encounter Model

May 11, 2009
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Project Report
Author:
Leo P. Espindle
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-349
Topic:
collision avoidance
R&D area:

Summary

As a result of monitoring and modeling efforts by Eurocontrol and the FAA, two change proposals have been created to change the TCAS II V9.0 logic. The first, CP-112E, addresses the safety issues referred to as SA01. SA01 events have to do with the reversal logic contained in the TCAS algorithm, e.g., when TCAS reverses the sense of an RA from climb to descend. Typically, reversals occur to resolve deteriorating conditions during and encounter. V7.0 contained reversal logic based on certain assumptions and engineering judgment, but operational experience obtained since deployment has compelled a re-evaluation in areas of that logic, specifically having to do with late reversals. The second change proposal, CP-115, rectifies observed confusion surrounding the aural annunication AVSA during an RA by replacing it with the annunciation LOLO, and changing the TCAS V7.0 display and logic to appropriately support the change. Collectively, the changes to teh TCAS logic in both CP-112E and CP115 are referred to as TCAS II V7.1. Included in this document is a safety study that consideres V7.1 as a whole, and also the first safety study that uses teh U.S. correlated encounter model developed by Lincoln Laboratory for testing TCAS. Also included is a discussion of simulation capabilites developed at Lincoln Laboratory for evaluating CP-115 and for future analysis of TCAS in high density areas. Our study indicates that mroe risk lies in remaining with the current version of TCAS over upgrading to V7.1, and that no negative impact on safety in high density airspace occurs as a result of CP-115.
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Summary

As a result of monitoring and modeling efforts by Eurocontrol and the FAA, two change proposals have been created to change the TCAS II V9.0 logic. The first, CP-112E, addresses the safety issues referred to as SA01. SA01 events have to do with the reversal logic contained in the TCAS...

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Safety analysis of upgrading to TCAS Version 7.1 using the 2008 U.S. Correlated Encounter Model

Encounter models for unconventional aircraft version 1.0

April 10, 2009
  |
Project Report
Author:
Matthew W. M. Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-348
Topic:
collision avoidance
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Airspace encounter models, covering close encounter situations that may occur after standard separation assurance has been lost, are a critical component in the safety assessment of aviation procedures and collision avoidance systems. Of particular relevance to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) is the potential for encountering general aviation aircraft that are flying under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and are not in contact with air traffic control. In response to the need to develop a model of these types of encounters, Lincoln Laboratory undertook an extensive data collection and modeling effort involving more than 96,000 unconventional aircraft tracks. The outcome of this effort was nine individual models encompassing ultralights, gliders, balloons, and airships. The models use Bayesian networks to represent relationships between dynamic variables and to construct random trajectories that are statistically similar to those observed in the data. The intruder trajectories can be used in fast-time Monte Carlo simulations to estimate collision risk. The model described in this report is one of three developed by Lincoln Laboratory. A correlated encounter model has been developed to represent situations in which it is likely that there would b e air traffic control intervention prior to a close enounter. The correlated model applies to encounters involving aircraft receiving Air Traffic Control (ATC) services and with transponders. TAn encounter with an intruder that does not have a transponder is uncorrelated in the sense that it is unlikely that there would be prior intervention by air traffic control. The uncorrelated model described in this report is based on global databases of pilot-submitted track data. This work is a follow-on to an uncorrelated conventional model developed from recorded radar tracks from aircraft using a 1200 transponder code. A byproduct of this encounter modeling effort was the extraction of feature distributions for unconventional aircraft. This provides an extensive collection of unconventional aircraft behavior in the airspace.
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Summary

Airspace encounter models, covering close encounter situations that may occur after standard separation assurance has been lost, are a critical component in the safety assessment of aviation procedures and collision avoidance systems. Of particular relevance to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) is the potential for encountering general aviation aircraft that are...

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Encounter models for unconventional aircraft version 1.0
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