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Correlated Bayesian model of aircraft encounters in the terminal area given a straight takeoff or landing

March 12, 2022
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Journal Article
Author:
Andrew J. Weinert
…
Published in:
Aerospace, Vol. 9, No.2, 12 March 2022.
Topic:
collision avoidance
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The integration of new airspace entrants into terminal operations requires design and evaluation of Detect and Avoid systems that prevent loss of well clear from and collision with other aircraft. Prior to standardization or deployment, an analysis of the safety performance of those systems is required. This type of analysis has typically been conducted by Monte Carlo simulation with synthetic, statistically representative encounters between aircraft drawn from an appropriate encounter model. While existing encounter models include terminal airspace classes, none explicitly represents the structure expected while engaged in terminal operations, e.g., aircraft in a traffic pattern. The work described herein is an initial model of such operations where an aircraft landing or taking off via a straight trajectory encounters another aircraft landing or taking off, or transiting by any means. The model shares the Bayesian network foundation of other Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory encounter models but tailors those networks to address structured terminal operations, i.e., correlations between trajectories and the airfield and each other. This initial model release is intended to elicit feedback from the standards-writing community.
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Summary

The integration of new airspace entrants into terminal operations requires design and evaluation of Detect and Avoid systems that prevent loss of well clear from and collision with other aircraft. Prior to standardization or deployment, an analysis of the safety performance of those systems is required. This type of analysis...

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Correlated Bayesian model of aircraft encounters in the terminal area given a straight takeoff or landing

Benchmarking the processing of aircraft tracks with triples mode and self-scheduling

September 20, 2021
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Conference Paper
Author:
Andrew J. Weinert
…
Published in:
2021 IEEE High Performance Extreme Computing Conf., HPEC, 20-24 September 2021.
Topic:
open systems
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Developing and certifying collision avoidance systems often rely on the extensive use of Monte Carlo collision risk analysis simulations using probabilistic models of aircraft flight. To train these models, high performance computing resources are required. We've prototyped a high performance computing workflow designed and deployed on the Lincoln Laboratory Supercomputing Center to process billions of observations of aircraft. However, the prototype has various computational and storage bottlenecks that limited rapid or more comprehensive analyses and models. In response, we've developed a novel workflow to take advantage of various job launch and task distribution technologies to improve performance. The workflow was benchmarked using two datasets of observations of aircraft, including a new dataset focused on the environment around aerodromes. Optimizing how the workflow was parallelized drastically reduced the execution time from weeks to days.
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Summary

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Developing and certifying collision avoidance systems often rely on the extensive use of...

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Benchmarking the processing of aircraft tracks with triples mode and self-scheduling

Demand and capacity modeling for advanced air mobility

August 2, 2021
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Conference Paper
Author:
Luis E. Alvarez
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Published in:
AIAA Aviation 2021 Conf., 2-6 August 2021.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging aviation technologies that transport people and cargo between local, regional, or urban locations that are currently underserved by aviation and other transportation modalities. The disruptive nature of these technologies has pushed industry, academia, and governments to devote significant investments to understand their impact on airspace risk, operational procedures, and passengers. A flexible framework was designed to assess the operational viability of these technologies and the sensitivity to a variety of assumptions. This framework is used to simulate air taxi traffic within New York City by replacing a portion of the city's taxi requests with trips taken with electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and evaluate the sensitivity of passenger trip time to a variety of system wide assumptions. In particular, the paper focuses on the impact of the passenger capacity, landing site vehicle capacity, and fleet size. The operation density is then compared with the current air traffic to assess operation constraints that will challenge the network UAM operations.
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Summary

Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging aviation technologies that transport people and cargo between local, regional, or urban locations that are currently underserved by aviation and other transportation modalities. The disruptive nature of these technologies has pushed industry, academia, and governments to devote significant investments to understand their impact on airspace...

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Demand and capacity modeling for advanced air mobility

Applicability and surrogacy of uncorrelated airspace encounter models at low altitudes

July 1, 2021
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Journal Article
Author:
Ngaire K. Underhill
…
Published in:
J. Air Transport., Vol. 29, No. 3, July-September 2021, pp. 137-41.
Topic:
air traffic management
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex and evolving system that enables safe and efficient aviation. Advanced air mobility concepts and new airspace entrants, such as unmanned aircraft, must integrate into the NAS without degrading overall safety or efficiency. For instance, regulations, standards, and systems are required to mitigate the risk of a midair collision between aircraft. Monte Carlo simulations have been a foundational capability for decades to develop, assess, and certify aircraft conflict avoidance systems. These are often validated through human-in-the-loop experiments and flight testing. For example, an update to the Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) mandated for manned aircraft was validated in part using this approach [1]. For many aviation safety studies, manned aircraft behavior is represented using the MIT Lincoln Laboratory statistical encounter models [2–5]. The original models [2–4] were developed from 2008 to 2013 to support safety simulations for altitudes above 500 feet above ground level (AGL). However, these models were not sufficient to assess the safety of smaller unmanned aerial systems (UAS) operations below 500 feet AGL and fully support the ASTM F38 and RTCA SC-147 standards efforts. In response, newer models [5–7] with altitude floors below 500 feet AGL have been in development since 2018. Many of the models assume that aircraft behavior is uncorrelated and not dependent on air traffic services or nearby aircraft. The models were trained using observations of cooperative aircraft equipped with transponders, but data sources and assumptions vary. The newer models are organized by aircraft types of fixed-wing multi-engine, fixed-wing single engine, and rotorcraft, whereas the original models do not consider aircraft type. Our research objective was to compare the various uncorrelated models of conventional aircraft and identify how the models differ. Particularly if models of rotorcraft were sufficiently different from models of fixed-wing aircraft to require type-specific models. The scope of this work was limited to altitudes below 5000 feet AGL, the expected altitude ceiling for many new airspace entrants. The scope was also informed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) UAS Integration Office and Alliance for System Safety of UAS through Research Excellence (ASSURE). The primary contribution is guidance on which uncorrelated models to leverage when evaluating the performance of a collision avoidance system designed for low-altitude operations, such as prescribed by the ASTM F3442 detect and avoid standard for smaller UAS [8]. We also address which models can be surrogates for non-cooperative aircraft without transponders. All models and software used are publicly available under open source licenses [9].
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Summary

National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex and evolving system that enables safe and efficient aviation. Advanced air mobility concepts and new airspace entrants, such as unmanned aircraft, must integrate into the NAS without degrading overall safety or efficiency. For instance, regulations, standards, and systems are required to mitigate the...

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Applicability and surrogacy of uncorrelated airspace encounter models at low altitudes

A quantitatively derived NMAC analog for smaller unmanned aircraft systems based on unmitigated collision risk

November 19, 2020
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Journal Article
Author:
Andrew J. Weinert
…
Published in:
Preprints, 19 November 2020.
Topic:
simulation
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The capability to avoid other air traffic is a fundamental component of the layered conflict management system to ensure safe and efficient operations in the National Airspace System. The evaluation of systems designed to mitigate the risk of midair collisions of manned aircraft are based on large-scale modeling and simulation efforts and a quantitative volume defined as a near midair collision (NMAC). Since midair collisions are difficult to observe in simulation and are inherently rare events, basing evaluations on NMAC enables a more robust statistical analysis. However, an NMAC and its underlying assumptions for assessing close encounters with manned aircraft do not adequately consider the different characteristics of smaller UAS-only encounters. The primary contribution of this paper is to explore quantitative criteria to use when simulating two or more smaller UASs in sufficiently close proximity that a midair collision might reasonably occur and without any mitigations to reduce the likelihood of a midair collision. The criteria assumes a historically motivated upper bound for the collision likelihood and subsequently identify the smallest possible NMAC analogs. We also demonstrate the NMAC analogs can be used to support modeling and simulation activities.
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Summary

The capability to avoid other air traffic is a fundamental component of the layered conflict management system to ensure safe and efficient operations in the National Airspace System. The evaluation of systems designed to mitigate the risk of midair collisions of manned aircraft are based on large-scale modeling and simulation...

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A quantitatively derived NMAC analog for smaller unmanned aircraft systems based on unmitigated collision risk

Frequency of ADS-B equipped manned aircraft observed by the OpenSky Network

November 12, 2020
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Conference Paper
Author:
Andrew J. Weinert
…
Published in:
8th OpenSky Symp. 2020, Online, 12–13 November 2020.
Topic:
aircraft
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

To support integration of unmanned aerial systems into the airspace, the low altitude airspace needs to be characterized. Identifying the frequency of different aircraft types, such as rotorcraft or fixed wing single engine, given criteria such as altitude, airspace class, or quantity of seats can inform surveillance requirements, flight test campaigns, or simulation safety thresholds for detect and avoid systems. We leveraged observations of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) equipped aircraft by the OpenSky Network for this characterization.
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Summary

To support integration of unmanned aerial systems into the airspace, the low altitude airspace needs to be characterized. Identifying the frequency of different aircraft types, such as rotorcraft or fixed wing single engine, given criteria such as altitude, airspace class, or quantity of seats can inform surveillance requirements, flight test...

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Frequency of ADS-B equipped manned aircraft observed by the OpenSky Network

Method to characterize potential UAS encounters using open source data

November 1, 2020
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Journal Article
Author:
Andrew J. Weinert
Published in:
Aerospace, Vol. 7, No. 11, November 2020, art. no. 158.
Topic:
UAS
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

As unmanned aerial systems (UASs) increasingly integrate into the US national airspace system, there is an increasing need to characterize how commercial and recreational UASs may encounter each other. To inform the development and evaluation of safety critical technologies, we demonstrate a methodology to analytically calculate all potential relative geometries between different UAS operations performing inspection missions. This method is based on a previously demonstrated technique that leverages open source geospatial information to generate representative unmanned aircraft trajectories. Using open source data and parallel processing techniques,we performed trillions of calculations to estimate the relative horizontal distance between geospatial points across sixteen locations.
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Summary

As unmanned aerial systems (UASs) increasingly integrate into the US national airspace system, there is an increasing need to characterize how commercial and recreational UASs may encounter each other. To inform the development and evaluation of safety critical technologies, we demonstrate a methodology to analytically calculate all potential relative geometries...

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Method to characterize potential UAS encounters using open source data

Processing of crowdsourced observations of aircraft in a high performance computing environment

September 22, 2020
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Conference Paper
Author:
Andrew J. Weinert
…
Published in:
2020 IEEE High Performance Extreme Computing Conf., HPEC, 22-24 September 2020.
Topic:
aircraft
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Both regulators and standards developing organizations have made extensive use of Monte Carlo collision risk analysis simulations using probabilistic models of aircraft flight. We've previously determined that the observations of manned aircraft by the OpenSky Network, a community network of ground-based sensors, are appropriate to develop models of the low altitude environment. This works overviews the high performance computing workflow designed and deployed on the Lincoln Laboratory Supercomputing Center to process 3.9 billion observations of aircraft. We then trained the aircraft models using more than 250,000 flight hours at 5,000 feet above ground level or below. A key feature of the workflow is that all the aircraft observations and supporting datasets are available as open source technologies or been released to the public domain.
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Summary

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Both regulators and standards developing organizations have made extensive use of Monte Carlo...

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Processing of crowdsourced observations of aircraft in a high performance computing environment

Representative small UAS trajectories for encounter modeling

January 6, 2020
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Conference Paper
Author:
Andrew J. Weinert
…
Published in:
AIAA SciTech Forum, 6-10 January 2020.
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Both regulators and standards developing organizations have made extensive use of Monte Carlo collision risk analysis simulations using probabilistic models of aircraft flight. We have previously demonstrated a methodology for developing small unmanned aircraft system (sUAS) flight models that leverage open source geospatial information and map datasets to generate representative unmanned operations at low altitudes. This work expands upon previous research by evaluating the scalability and diversity of open source data to support currently needed risk assessments. We also provide considerations for pairing these trajectories with generative manned aircraft models to create encounters for Monte Carlo simulations.
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Summary

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Both regulators and standards developing organizations have made extensive use of Monte Carlo...

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Representative small UAS trajectories for encounter modeling

Cloud computing in tactical environments

October 23, 2017
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Conference Paper
Author:
Warren W. Smith
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Published in:
MILCOM 2017, 23-25 October 2017.
Topic:
energy systems
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Ground personnel at the tactical edge often lack data and analytics that would increase their effectiveness. To address this problem, this work investigates methods to deploy cloud computing capabilities in tactical environments. Our approach is to identify representative applications and to design a system that spans the software/hardware stack to support such applications while optimizing the use of scarce resources. This paper presents our high-level design and the results of initial experiments that indicate the validity of our approach.
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Summary

Ground personnel at the tactical edge often lack data and analytics that would increase their effectiveness. To address this problem, this work investigates methods to deploy cloud computing capabilities in tactical environments. Our approach is to identify representative applications and to design a system that spans the software/hardware stack to...

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Cloud computing in tactical environments
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