Publications
Aviation user needs for convective weather forecasts
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
The prediction of convective weather is very important to aviation, since almost half of the serious delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by thunderstorms. The need for accurate 0-6 hr forecasts for NAS users has been the subject of extensive publications, forums, and advisory committees in the aviation weather community over the last several years (Wolfson, et al; 1997). The Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT), a core team of scientists and engineers from NCAR, NSSL, and MIT LL, was formed in 1996 as part of the reorganization of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. The team is developing convective weather forecast algorithms that produce operationally useful products for both the terminal area and enroute airspace. The products are designed to meet specific users' air traffic planning and safety needs. Before major algorithm development began, PDT members visited terminal and enroute Air Traffic (AT) personnel and airline dispatchers to understand the forecast products that were currently available to them and their needs for a near future product. Also, in order to reach the pilot community, a pilot survey about existing convective weather information and how to improve it, was created and distributed at the OshKosh Fly-In in August of 1997. This needs assessment took advantage of interviewees that had extensively used state-of-the-art weather information products (ITWS) in an operational setting for years. Their requirements, based on personal experiences with operational products during convective weather events, were less stringent than those reported in the recent requirements document pertaining to ARTCC TMUs (Browne, et al; 1999). The results of these investigations were used in the creation of the DFW Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) product and the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) products that were demonstrated throughout the summer of 1998 (Hallowell, et al; 1999; Mueller, et al; 1999). These demonstrations also provided additional insight into user needs. In this paper we describe Air Traffic users and their specific responsibilities. We then summarize AT and airline needs based on interviews conducted in 1997 and 1998. Information on pilots' needs for convective weather information is presented at the end.
Summary
The prediction of convective weather is very important to aviation, since almost half of the serious delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by thunderstorms. The need for accurate 0-6 hr forecasts for NAS users has been the subject of extensive publications, forums, and advisory committees in...
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The growth and decay storm tracker
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. Eighth Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 Jan. 1999, pp. 58-62.
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An elliptical filter/tracker capable of accounting for systematic growth and delay, designated the Growth and Decay Storm Tracker, has been developed and tested. Its performance depends on the size and shape of the filter, the performance of the cross-correlation tracker, the time interval between successive scans, the forecast lead time, and the type of storm being tracked.
Summary
An elliptical filter/tracker capable of accounting for systematic growth and delay, designated the Growth and Decay Storm Tracker, has been developed and tested. Its performance depends on the size and shape of the filter, the performance of the cross-correlation tracker, the time interval between successive scans, the forecast lead time...
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The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast demonstration at the DFW International Airport
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
The FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) is tasked with developing products for convective weather forecasts for aviation users. The overall product development is a collaborative effort between scientists from MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). As part of the PDT, MIT/LL is being funded to develop algorithms for accurately forecasting the location of strong precipitation in and around airport terminal areas. We began by consulting with air traffic personnel and commercial airline dispatchers to determine the needs of aviation users. Users indicated that convective weather, particularly line storms, caused the most consistent problems for managing air traffic. These storms are by far the major cause of aircraft delays and diversions. MIT/LL has already developed the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) which combines a variety of near-airport sensors to provide a wide range of current weather information to aviation users. Raytheon is currently building the production ITWS system which will be deployed at 45 major airports by 2003. The initial capability ITWS already provides some convective weather predictive capabilities in the form of storm motion vectors and "Storm Extrapolated Positions" (SEP; leading edge of storm at 10 and 20 minutes). But ITWS users indicated a desire for enhanced forecasts which showed the full spatial extent of the weather, how the weather would change (grow or decay) and extended forecast time periods to at least out one hour. Our approach is to develop an algorithm which may be added as a future product improvement to the ITWS system. Previous attempts at producing forecasts have focused on convective initiation and building from short-term (20-30 min) cell forecasts. Our "reverse time" approach of attacking longer time scale (60 min) features first is an outgrowth of addressing user needs and the discovery of improved tracking techniques for large scale precipitation features. The "Growth and Decay Tracker" developed by MIT/LL (Wolfson et.al., 1999) allows us to generate accurate short and long term forecasts of large scale precipitation features. This paper details the Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) demonstration ongoing at Dallas/Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW) and discusses the underlying algorithm being developed.
Summary
The FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) is tasked with developing products for convective weather forecasts for aviation users. The overall product development is a collaborative effort between scientists from MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). As...
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The Memphis ITWS convective forecasting collaborative demonstration
February 2, 1997
Conference Paper
Published in:
7th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 2-7 February 1997.
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Accurate, short-term forecasts of where thunderstorms will develop, move and decay allow for strategic traffic management in and around the aviation terminal and enroute airspace. Pre-planning to avoid adverse weather conditions provides safe, smooth and continuous air traffic flow and savings in both fuel cost and time. Wolfson, et. al ( 1997) describe the problem of convective weather forecasting for FAA applications. In 1995, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT-LL) and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) scientists and engineers agreed to collaborate on the development of a convective weather forecasting algorithm for use in airport terminal areas. Each laboratory brings special strengths to the project. NCAR has been developing techniques for precise, short-term (0-60 minutes) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, movement and dissipation for the FAA over the past ten years and has developed the Auto-Nowcaster software. MIT-LL has been developing real-time algorithms for the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), including techniques for storm tracking, gust front detection, and calculating storm growth and decay (as part of predicting microbursts) . NSSL has been working on the NEXRAD Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm, and on understanding the predictive value of the storm cell information. Thus by using the latest research results and best techniques available at each laboratory, the collaborative effort will hopefully result in a superior convective weather forecasting algorithm. Our goal in the immediate future is to develop a joint algorithm that can be demonstrated to users of terminal weather information, so that the benefits of convective weather forecast information can be realized, and the remaining needs can be assessed. As a first effort in the collaboration, the laboratories fielded their individual algorithms at the Memphis ITWS site. This paper gives an overview of our collaborative experiment in Memphis, the system each laboratory operated, some preliminary analysis of our performance on one case, and our plans for the near future.
Summary
Accurate, short-term forecasts of where thunderstorms will develop, move and decay allow for strategic traffic management in and around the aviation terminal and enroute airspace. Pre-planning to avoid adverse weather conditions provides safe, smooth and continuous air traffic flow and savings in both fuel cost and time. Wolfson, et. al...
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ITWS microburst prediction algorithm performance, capabilities, and limitations
November 13, 1996
Conference Paper
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Workshop on Wind Shear and Wind Shear Alert Systems,. Oklahoma City, 13-15 November, 1996.
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Lincoln Laboratory, under funding from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Doppler Weather Radar program, has developed algorithms for automatically detecting microbursts. While microburst detection algorithms provide highly reliable warnings of microbursts. there still remains a period of time between microburst onset and pilot reaction during which aircraft are at risk. This latency is due to the time needed for the automated algorithms to operate on the radar data, for air traffic controllers to relay any warnings and for pilots to react to the warnings. Lincoln Laboratory research and development has yielded an algorithm for accurately predicting when microburst outflows will occur. The Microburst Prediction Algorithm is part of a suite of weather detection algorithms within the Integrated Terminal Weather System. This paper details the performance of the Microburst Prediction Algorithm over a wide range of geographical and climatological environments. The paper also discusses the full range of the Microburst Prediction Algorithm's capabilities and limitations in varied weather environments. This paper does not discuss the overall rationale for a prediction algorithm or the detailed methodology used to generate predictions.
Summary
Lincoln Laboratory, under funding from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Doppler Weather Radar program, has developed algorithms for automatically detecting microbursts. While microburst detection algorithms provide highly reliable warnings of microbursts. there still remains a period of time between microburst onset and pilot reaction during which aircraft are at...
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Automated microburst wind-shear prediction
September 1, 1994
Journal Article
Published in:
Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 7, No. 2, Fall 1994, pp. 399-426.
Summary
We have developed an algorithm that automatically and reliably predicts microburst wind shear. The algorithm, developed as part of the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), can provide warnings several minutes in advance of hazardous low-altitude wind-shear conditions. Our approach to the algorithm emphasizes fundamental principles of thunderstorm evolution and downdraft development and incorporates heuristic and statistical methods as needed for refinement. In the algorithm, machine-intelligent image processing and data-fusion techniques are applied to Doppler radar data to detect those regions of growing thunderstorms and intensifying downdrafts which lead to microbursts. The algorithm then uses measurements of the ambient temperature/humidity structure in the atmosphere to aid in predicting a microburst's peak outflow strength. The algorithm has been tested in real time as part of the ITWS operational test and evaluation at Memphis, Tennessee, and Orlando, Florida, in 1994.
Summary
We have developed an algorithm that automatically and reliably predicts microburst wind shear. The algorithm, developed as part of the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), can provide warnings several minutes in advance of hazardous low-altitude wind-shear conditions. Our approach to the algorithm emphasizes fundamental principles of thunderstorm evolution and...
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A microburst prediction algorithm for the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System
April 4, 1994
Conference Paper
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SPIE, Vol. 2220, Sensing, Imaging, and Vision for Control and Guidance of Aerospace Vehicles, 4-5 April 1994, pp. 194-204.
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Lincoln Laboratory is developing a prototype of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) to provide improved aviation weather information in the terminal area by integrating data and products from various FAA and National Weather Service (NWS) sensors and weather information systems. The ITWS Microburst Prediction product is intended to provide and additional margin of safety for pilots in avoiding microburst wind shear hazards (Fig. 1). The product is envisioned for use by traffic managers, supervisors, controllers, and pilots (directly via datalink). Our objective is to accurately predict the onset of microburst wind shear several minutes in advance. The approach we have chosen in developing the ITWS Microburst Prediction algorithm emphasizes fundamental physical principles of thunderstorm evolution and downdraft development, incorporating heuristic and/or statistical methods as needed for refinement. Image processing and data fusion techniques are used to produce an "interest" image (Delanoy etal., 1991, 1992) that reveals developing downdrafts. We use Doppler radar data to identify regions of growing thunderstorms and probable regions of downdraft, and combine these with measures of the ambient temperature structure (height of the freezing level, lapse rate in the lower atmosphere; Wolfson 1990), total lightning flash rate, and storm motion to predict the microburst location, timing, and outflow strength. There is also a simple feedback system based on the results of the Microburst Detection algorithm that desensitizes prediction thresholds if false predictions are being reported. The following slides describe the preliminary ITWS Microburst Prediction algorithm design, and show examples of feature detector, and the algorithm output on one test case. Results from off-line testing on 17 days of data from Orlando are also presented.
Summary
Lincoln Laboratory is developing a prototype of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) to provide improved aviation weather information in the terminal area by integrating data and products from various FAA and National Weather Service (NWS) sensors and weather information systems. The ITWS Microburst Prediction product...
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MDCRS: aircraft observations collection and uses
August 2, 1993
Conference Paper
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5th Int. Conf. on Aviation Weather Systems, 2-6 August 1993, pp. 317-321.
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The Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) was designed for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) to collect, decode, store and disseminate aircraft meteorological observations. The system, targeted primarily at improving upper air wind forecasts, was fielded in 1991.
Summary
The Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) was designed for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) to collect, decode, store and disseminate aircraft meteorological observations. The system, targeted primarily at improving upper air wind forecasts, was fielded in 1991.
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Dual-Doppler measurements of microburst outflow strength asymmetry
May 24, 1993
Conference Paper
Published in:
26th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteorology, 24-28 May 1993, pp. 664-666.
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The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been sponsoring Lincoln Laboratory in its effort to develop and test weather detection algorithms for the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR). An automated microburst detection algorithm operates on the TDWR radial velocity data and, based on the shear and velocity difference along the radial, outputs regions which are hazards to aviation. This algorithm has been operating since 1987 in Denver, Kansas City, and Orlando and is part of the operational TDWR being deployed across the country. One issue which continues to cause concern for automated windshear detection is microburst asymmetry. Asymmetry, or aspect angle dependence, in microbursts refers to outflows which have a divergent surface outflow strength or extent that varies depending on the viewing angle of the radar. The TDWR is a single-Doppler radar, therefore, an asymmetric microburst may be underestimated or go undetected if the radar is viewing the event from an aspect angle where the strength of the outflow is weak. Past work by Wilson et al., Eilts, and Hallowell has indicated that some microbursts are highly asymmetric. Strength asymmetries (maximum/minimum strength over all viewing angles) from these past studies ranged from 1.3 to as high as 6.0. Hallowell using Denver data examined 27 Denver microbursts (96 observations) and found strength asymmetries from 1.3 to 3.8 with a median of 1.9. However, this previous work has been limited in scope to Denver and Oklahoma (plains) microbursts, and may have used assumptions about the data which introduce false or apparent asymmetry.
Summary
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been sponsoring Lincoln Laboratory in its effort to develop and test weather detection algorithms for the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR). An automated microburst detection algorithm operates on the TDWR radial velocity data and, based on the shear and velocity difference along the radial...
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Characteristics of thunderstorm-generated low altitude wind shear: a survey based on nationwide Terminal Doppler Weather Radar testbed measurements
December 1, 1990
Conference Paper
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Proc. 29th IEEE Conf. on Decision and Control, 5-7 December 1990, Vol. 2, pp. 682-688.
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The characteristics of microbursts and gust fronts, two forms of aviation-hazardous low altitude wind shear, are presented. Data were collected with a prototype terminal Doppler weather radar and a network of surface weather stations in Memphis, Huntsville, Denver, Kansas City, and Orlando. Regional differences and features that could be exploited in detection systems such as the associated reflectivity, surface wind shear, and temperature change are emphasized.
Summary
The characteristics of microbursts and gust fronts, two forms of aviation-hazardous low altitude wind shear, are presented. Data were collected with a prototype terminal Doppler weather radar and a network of surface weather stations in Memphis, Huntsville, Denver, Kansas City, and Orlando. Regional differences and features that could be exploited...
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