Publications
Self-supervised contrastive pre-training for time series via time-frequency consistency
July 11, 2022
Journal Article
Published in:
arXiv, June 16, 2022.
Summary
Pre-training on time series poses a unique challenge due to the potential mismatch between pre-training and target domains, such as shifts in temporal dynamics, fast-evolving trends, and long-range and short cyclic effects, which can lead to poor downstream performance. While domain adaptation methods can mitigate these shifts, most methods need examples directly from the target domain, making them suboptimal for pre-training. To address this challenge, methods need to accommodate target domains with different temporal dynamics and be capable of doing so without seeing any target examples during pre-training. Relative to other modalities, in time series, we expect that time-based and frequency-based representations of the same example are located close together in the time-frequency space. To this end, we posit that time-frequency consistency (TF-C) — embedding a time-based neighborhood of a particular example close to its frequency-based neighborhood and back—is desirable for pre-training. Motivated by TF-C, we define a decomposable pre-training model, where the self-supervised signal is provided by the distance between time and frequency components, each individually trained by contrastive estimation. We evaluate the new method on eight datasets, including electrodiagnostic testing, human activity recognition, mechanical fault detection, and physical status monitoring. Experiments against eight state-of-the-art methods show that TF-C outperforms baselines by 15.4% (F1 score) on average in one-to-one settings (e.g., fine-tuning an EEG-pretrained model on EMG data) and by up to 8.4% (F1 score) in challenging one-to-many settings (e.g., fine-tuning an EEG-pretrained model for either hand-gesture recognition or mechanical fault prediction), reflecting the breadth of scenarios that arise in real-world applications. The source code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TFC-pretraining-6B07.
Summary
Pre-training on time series poses a unique challenge due to the potential mismatch between pre-training and target domains, such as shifts in temporal dynamics, fast-evolving trends, and long-range and short cyclic effects, which can lead to poor downstream performance. While domain adaptation methods can mitigate these shifts, most methods need...
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Graph-guided network for irregularly sampled multivariate time series
April 25, 2022
Conference Paper
Published in:
International Conference on Learning Representations, ICLR 2022.
Summary
In many domains, including healthcare, biology, and climate science, time series are irregularly sampled with varying time intervals between successive readouts and different subsets of variables (sensors) observed at different time points. Here, we introduce RAINDROP, a graph neural network that embeds irregularly sampled and multivariate time series while also learning the dynamics of sensors purely from observational data. RAINDROP represents every sample as a separate sensor graph and models time-varying dependencies between sensors with a novel message passing operator. It estimates the latent sensor graph structure and leverages the structure together with nearby observations to predict misaligned readouts. This model can be interpreted as a graph neural network that sends messages over graphs that are optimized for capturing time-varying dependencies among sensors. We use RAINDROP to classify time series and interpret temporal dynamics on three healthcare and human activity datasets. RAINDROP outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to 11.4% (absolute F1-score points), including techniques that deal with irregular sampling using fixed discretization and set functions. RAINDROP shows superiority in diverse setups, including challenging leave-sensor-out settings.
Summary
In many domains, including healthcare, biology, and climate science, time series are irregularly sampled with varying time intervals between successive readouts and different subsets of variables (sensors) observed at different time points. Here, we introduce RAINDROP, a graph neural network that embeds irregularly sampled and multivariate time series while also...
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Development of a field artifical intelligence triage tool: Confidence in the prediction of shock, transfusion, and definitive surgical therapy in patients with truncal gunshot wounds
June 1, 2021
Journal Article
Published in:
J. Trauma Acute Care Surg., Vol. 90, No. 6, 1 June 2021.
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R&D area:
Summary
BACKGROUND: In-field triage tools for trauma patients are limited by availability of information, linear risk classification, and a lack of confidence reporting. We therefore set out to develop and test a machine learning algorithm that can overcome these limitations by accurately and confidently making predictions to support in-field triage in the first hours after traumatic injury. METHODS: Using an American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program-derived database of truncal and junctional gunshot wound (GSW) patients (aged 1~0 years), we trained an information-aware Dirichlet deep neural network (field artificial intelligence triage). Using supervised training, field artificial intelligence triage was trained to predict shock and the need for major hemorrhage control procedures or early massive transfusion (MT) using GSW anatomical locations, vital signs, and patient information available in the field. In parallel, a confidence model was developed to predict the true-dass probability ( scale of 0-1 ), indicating the likelihood that the prediction made was correct, based on the values and interconnectivity of input variables.
Summary
BACKGROUND: In-field triage tools for trauma patients are limited by availability of information, linear risk classification, and a lack of confidence reporting. We therefore set out to develop and test a machine learning algorithm that can overcome these limitations by accurately and confidently making predictions to support in-field triage in...
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Information Aware max-norm Dirichlet networks for predictive uncertainty estimation
January 1, 2021
Journal Article
Published in:
Neural Netw., Vol. 135, 2021, pp. 105–114.
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Summary
Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction confidence, we propose a novel method, Information Aware Dirichlet networks, that learn an explicit Dirichlet prior distribution on predictive distributions by minimizing a bound on the expected max norm of the prediction error and penalizing information associated with incorrect outcomes. Properties of the new cost function are derived to indicate how improved uncertainty estimation is achieved. Experiments using real datasets show that our technique outperforms, by a large margin, state-of-the-art neural networks for estimating within-distribution and out-of-distribution uncertainty, and detecting adversarial examples.
Summary
Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction confidence, we propose a...
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Ultrasound diagnosis of COVID-19: robustness and explainability
November 30, 2020
Journal Article
Published in:
arXiv:2012.01145v1 [eess.IV]
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Summary
Diagnosis of COVID-19 at point of care is vital to the containment of the global pandemic. Point of care ultrasound (POCUS) provides rapid imagery of lungs to detect COVID-19 in patients in a repeatable and cost effective way. Previous work has used public datasets of POCUS videos to train an AI model for diagnosis that obtains high sensitivity. Due to the high stakes application we propose the use of robust and explainable techniques. We demonstrate experimentally that robust models have more stable predictions and offer improved interpretability. A framework of contrastive explanations based on adversarial perturbations is used to explain model predictions that aligns with human visual perception.
Summary
Diagnosis of COVID-19 at point of care is vital to the containment of the global pandemic. Point of care ultrasound (POCUS) provides rapid imagery of lungs to detect COVID-19 in patients in a repeatable and cost effective way. Previous work has used public datasets of POCUS videos to train an...
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Failure prediction by confidence estimation of uncertainty-aware Dirichlet networks
October 19, 2020
Journal Article
Published in:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09865
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Summary
Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown that uncertainty-aware deep Dirichlet neural networks provide an improved separation between the confidence of correct and incorrect predictions in the true class probability (TCP) metric. Second, as the true class is unknown at test time, a new criterion is proposed for learning the true class probability by matching prediction confidence scores while taking imbalance and TCP constraints into account for correct predictions and failures. Experimental results show our method improves upon the maximum class probability (MCP) baseline and predicted TCP for standard networks on several image classification tasks with various network architectures.
Summary
Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown that uncertainty-aware deep Dirichlet neural networks provide an improved separation between the confidence...
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A multi-task LSTM framework for improved early sepsis prediction
September 26, 2020
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, AIME, 2020, pp. 49-58.
Summary
Early detection for sepsis, a high-mortality clinical condition, is important for improving patient outcomes. The performance of conventional deep learning methods degrades quickly as predictions are made several hours prior to the clinical definition. We adopt recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to improve early prediction of the onset of sepsis using times series of physiological measurements. Furthermore, physiological data is often missing and imputation is necessary. Absence of data might arise due to decisions made by clinical professionals which carries information. Using the missing data patterns into the learning process can further guide how much trust to place on imputed values. A new multi-task LSTM model is proposed that takes informative missingness into account during training that effectively attributes trust to temporal measurements. Experimental results demonstrate our method outperforms conventional CNN and LSTM models on the PhysioNet-2019 CiC early sepsis prediction challenge in terms of area under receiver-operating curve and precision-recall curve, and further improves upon calibration of prediction scores.
Summary
Early detection for sepsis, a high-mortality clinical condition, is important for improving patient outcomes. The performance of conventional deep learning methods degrades quickly as predictions are made several hours prior to the clinical definition. We adopt recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to improve early prediction of the onset of sepsis using...
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