Performance results and potential operational uses for the prototype TDWR microburst prediction product
Summary
The Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) is a ground-based system for providing automated warnings of aviation wind shear hazards. This paper describes a proposed new TDWR product for microburst prediction. The proposed Microburst Prediction (MBP) product provides the ability to predict microbursts prior to the onset of surface outflow. The MBP product uses the ability of the TDWR to scan aloft for precursor signatures which indicate that a microburst is about to occur. The proposed MBP product provides a complementary capability to the other TDWR wind shear detection and prediction algorithms. As shown in Figure 1, the Microburst and Gust Front algorithms provide safety benefits by detecting wind shear hazards. The Wind Shift Prediction product provides an economic benefit by predicting runway wind shifts up to 20 minutes in advance. The MBP product provides both safety and economic benefits by predicting microburst hazards about 5 minutes in advance. The development of the MBP product is intended to be evolutionary. The initial implementation of the product relies on TDWR radar data only. Later versions are expected to also employ thermodynamic information, as part of the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). However, the radar-only version discussed in this paper will provide a useful interim capability. The organization of the paper is as follows. Section 2 provides a discussion of the potential operational benefits of the MBP product in improving safety and reducing delay. Section 3 describes the current MBP product algorithm, and section 4 provides performance results for two environments: Kansas City, KS and Orlando, FL. Section 5 provides an example of the product operation in predicting a 50 knot microburst which had substantial impact on airport operations. Section 6 will provide a summary and discuss future work.