A comparison of the performance of two gust front detection algorithms using a length-based scoring technique
May 8, 1992
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-185
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Summary
The Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) Gust Front Algorithm provides, as products, estimates of the current locations of gust fronts, their future locations, the wind speed and sirection behind the gust fronts, and the wind shear hazard to landing or departing aircraft. These products are used by air traffic controllers and supervisors to warn pilots of potentially hazardous wind shears during take-off and landing and to plan runway reconfigurations. Until recently, an event-based scoring system was used to evaluate the performance of the algorithm. With the event-based scoring scheme, if any part of a gust front length was detected, a valid detection was declared. Unfortunately, this scheme gave no indication of how much of the gust front length was detected; nor could the probabilities be easily related to the probability of issuing a wind shear alert for a specific approach or departure path which was being impacted by a gust front. To make the scoring metric more nearly reflect the operational use of the product, a new length-based scoring scheme was devised. This scheme computes the length of the gust front detected by the algorithm. When computed over a large number of gust fronts, this length-based scoring scheme yields the probability that any part of the gust front will be detected. As improvements to the algorithm increase the length detected, the probability of detecting any part of a gust front increases. In particular, an improved algorithm means an increased probability of correctly issuing wind shear alerts for the runways impacted by a gust front, and length-based scoring is a more accurate technique for assessing this probability of detection. This paper describes the length-based scoring scheme and compares it with event-based scoring of the algorithm's gust front detection and forecast performance. The comparison of the scoring methods shows that recent enhancements to the gust front algorithm provide a substantial, positive impact on performance.