Summary
Air traffic congestion in the United States (US) National Airspace System (NAS) has increased significantly in the past ten years. This congestion has resulted in a rise of air traffic delays, which can cause massive monetary and human costs. When convective weather impacts jet routes and airport terminals, particularly within the most congested airspace sectors, it causes a reduction in traffic capacity that can lead to significant delays. In an effort to increase airspace capacity and reduce air traffic delays, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL), in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are tasked by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to provide aviation weather decision support tools for the air traffic management (ATM) community. To determine which weather products and data dissemination approaches will provide the greatest benefit in terms of increasing airspace capacity, MIT LL is performing ongoing marketing research analyses. The method consists of three primary steps (Ballentine 1994; Evans and Robinson 2005; Evans et al. 2003): 1) Study the system 2) Identify benefits 3) Prioritize opportunities In practice, the execution of these three steps is an iterative process. It is critical to understand how the air traffic system operates to assess the benefits of a weather product. For this reason many studies have been conducted by MIT LL where ATM users have been interviewed, use of decision support tools has been observed, and flight track data have been analyzed to extract the behavior of the pilot (Evans et al. 2003; Evans and Robinson 2005; Robinson et al. 2004; Rhoda et al. 2002; Allan et al. 2001; Bieringer et al. 1999; Rhoda and Pawlak 1999; Forman et al. 1999). These studies have provided valuable insight into how the NAS operates during weather impacts. Weather impacts on the air traffic system can be classified into three basic types: 1) Terminal impacts (≤ 5 nm) 2) En route impacts 3) Transition impacts (between Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) sectors and terminal operations) Terminal impacts are those that occur in and around the airport, and are generally less than 5 nm from the runways. These impacts are small in dimension and occur at low altitude, and have been shown to be relatively insignificant to the overall delay problem (Evans et al. 2005). En route impacts occur within ARTCC's jet routes and sectors. These impacts can result in a route being totally or partially blocked and lead to a reduction in capacity. The en route impacts generally occur at high altitude. Transition impacts are those that occur within the zone between the ARTCC sectors and the terminal approaches. By understanding the system one can then identify elements or areas of opportunities that can be exploited to help solve the airspace capacity problem. Weber et al. (2005) identifies four key elements for maintaining capacity during convective weather events: 1) Forecasts of convective weather 2) Capacity models where weather is an input 3) Strategy tools for ATM with weather as an input 4) Airspace capacity enhancements Forman et al. (1999) studied the terminal impact problem and found that the ATM users required precipitation forecasts that were reliable, updated rapidly (5-6 minutes), had high resolution (1 km), short lead times (1-2 hours), and were issued with fine time steps (10-15 minutes). MIT LL used this information to refine its terminal convective weather forecast (TCWF) and received very positive feedback from ATM personnel (Hallowell et al. 1999). Subsequently, the precipitation forecast was extended out to 2-hourtime horizons and was provided to the traffic managers working in busy Midwest and Northeast ARTCCs as part of the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) (See Klingle-Wilson and Evans (2005) for a description of the CIWS product). However, it was quickly determined that the precipitation product alone was not sufficient for identifying usable en route airspace, since occasionally significant precipitation (≥ level 3)1 had relatively low storm tops (≤ 30 kft). Due to feedback from ATM users, MIT LL produced a high resolution (1 km) enhanced Echo Tops Mosaic weather product (Evans et al. 2003) that is used as a proxy for the cloud top height. Since the operational inception of the CIWS enhanced Echo Tops Mosaic product in August 2002, FAA and airline traffic managers have become acutely aware of the benefits of high-resolution storm top information for efficient en route air traffic control (ATC) operations. CIWS field use assessment campaigns in 2003 revealed significant benefits attributed to use of the Echo Tops Mosaic product (Robinson et al. 2004). During interviews, traffic managers explained that in the past, if an aircraft deviated around a storm in high-traffic airspace, jet routes were closed by default, since pilot behavior was the only easily assessable information available about three-dimensional storm structure. After the CIWS Echo Tops Mosaic was introduced, traffic managers were able to differentiate between isolated storm top concerns, which are easily handled by keeping routes open and absorbing occasional, local deviations, and significant high-topped storm events, which legitimately require route closures and reroutes. Post-event interviews in 2003 revealed that though FAA and airline users were very pleased with the availability and quality of the CIWS Echo Tops Mosaic product, they also needed to know both the past trend and predicted behavior of storm top heights. The CIWS Echo Tops Forecast (ETF) was introduced in May 2005 to meet some of the traffic management requests. This paper discusses the ETF product currently operational in CIWS. We will discuss the generation of the forecast algorithm and provide an initial assessment of the use of the ETF in the field.