A comparison of storm tracking and extrapolation algorithms
July 31, 1984
Project Report
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-124
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Summary
The FAA requires short-term forecasts of the development and motion of high reflectivity regions to plan for weather avoidance in the en route and terminal areas. Specific needs include choice of air routes and anticipating when to open or close approach/departure gates, descent corridors, and runways. This report compares storm-tracking algorithms for making short-term (0-30 minute) forecasts of high reflectivity areas, to serve these air traffic control needs. The area forecasts are made by moving the key features of the current reflectivity map according to the velocities derived from the storm trackers. The NEXRAD centroid, correlation, and Crane peak-cell trackers are compared against themselves, persistence, and a best-fit extrapolation. Two performance measures are used: (a) overlap of predicted versus actual areas (b) accuracy in flight-path choice. The second method is a new way of scoring the predictor performance and is particularly suited to aviation needs. Five storms are considered, three in Massachusetts and two in Oklahoma. The correlation and peak-cell trackers generally performed well in the Massachusetts storms, close to a best correlation fit extrapolator. The centroid tracker behaves erratically, due to contour merging and splitting. The centroid tracker performed well on compact, Oklahoma storms where the correlation and peak-cell trackers were misled by storm propagation, an effect to be expected when there is high vertical shear of the horizontal wind. It is recommended that either the correlation or centroid tracker be used, depending on the type of storm expected. The centroid tracker would be used on compact storms; the correlation tracker would be used on storms without substantial propagation. The forecasts appear to be skillful in predicting high-reflectivity areas; however, they are less skillful in anticipating flight-paths which do not intersect these areas. Inclusion of forecasts of storm growth and decay will probably be required to improve the performance; anticipating growth and decay will also be important for forecasts of greater than 30 minutes.